Page 493
This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.
0.0
46279
Rac? &
HER! 17 DEC 08
AFFAIRS OF CHINA.
CONFIDENTIAL.
[39615]
(No. 430.) Sir,
No. 1.
[November 1
SECTION 4.
Sir J. Jordan to Sir Edward Grey.-(Received November 14.)
Peking, September 25, 1908.
I HAVE the honour to acknowledge the receipt of your despatch No. 371 of the 5th ultimo, in which you inclose copies of correspondence with the War Office, and request me to furnish you with my views upon the subject of the probable evacuation of North China by the British forces at present stationed here.
The circumstances which appear to me to govern a decision on this point have been stated in my telegram No. 149 of the 11th instant, and a reference thereto will show that the question of the succession to the throne is the dominant factor in the situation.
The state of the country generally is fairly quiet; the Central Government occupies a much stronger position than it did a year ago, and there has been practically no anti-foreign trouble of any kind for the last two years.
But the Empress Dowager, who has ruled the Empire for more than a generation, is now 72 and is generally supposed to be losing her grasp of public affairs. The Emperor, a man of 37 but in appearance a boy of 16, is a chronic invalid whose state at an audience with a Foreign Minister a few days ago, His Majesty was unable to ascend the two or three steps leading up to the dais on which he usually sits on such occasions.
No one can attempt to forecast what may happen on the death or abdication of the Empress Dowager, and it is this uncertainty which makes it so difficult to fix even an approximate date for the withdrawal of the troops. The question of the succession has for some time past engaged the anxious attention of Chinese statesmen, but there are great difficulties in selecting a candidate, and the Empress Dowager, after her previous experience, is known to be very reluctant to commit herself to any choice.
Taking, however, all the circumstances into consideration, we are, I think, reasonably justified in hoping that the evacuation may take place with safety before the end of 1913, and in my opinion it is not therefore advisable to enter into the arrangement mentioned in paragraph 1 of the letter from the War Office.
I assume that the War Office inquiry refers only to the troops at Tien-tsin, and that their withdrawal would not, from a military point of view, involve any risk in the retention, if necessary, of the Legation guards at Peking.
I have, &c. (Signed)
J. N. JORDAN.
[2029 -4]
Page 493
:
493
This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.
0.0
46279
Rac? &
HER! 17 DEC 08
AFFAIRS OF CHINA.
CONFIDENTIAL.
[39615]
(No. 430.) Sir,
No. 1.
[November 1
SECTION 4.
Sir J. Jordan to Sir Edward Grey.-(Received November 14.)
Peking, September 25, 1908. I HAVE the honour to acknowledge the receipt of your despatch No. 371 of the 5th ultimo, in which you inclose copies of correspondence with the War Office, and request me to furnish you with my views upon the subject of the probable evacuation of North China by the British forces at present stationed here.
The circumstances which appear to me to govern a decision on this point have been stated in my telegram No. 149 of the 11th instant, and a reference thereto will show that the question of the succession to the throne is the dominant factor in the situation.
The state of the country generally is fairly quiet; the Central Government occupies a much stronger position than it did a year ago, and there has been prac- tically no anti-foreign trouble of any kind for the last two years.
But the Empress Dowager, who has ruled the Empire for more than a generation, is now 72 and is generally supposed to be losing her grasp of public affairs. The Emperor, a man of 37 but in appearance a boy of 16, is a chronic invalid whose state At an audience with a Foreign Minister of health has recently been worse than usual.
a few days ago, His Majesty was unable to ascend the two or three steps leading up to the dais on which he usually sits on such occasions.
No one can attempt to forecast what may happen on the death or abdication of the Empress Dowager, and it is this uncertainty which makes it so difficult to fix even an approximate date for the withdrawal of the troops. The question of the succession has for some time past engaged the anxious attention of Chinese statesmen, but there are great difficulties in selecting a candidate, and the Empress Dowager, after her previous experience, is known to be very reluctant to commit herself to any choice.
Taking, however, all the circumstances into consideration, we are, I think, reasonably justified in hoping that the evacuation may take place with safety before the end of 1913, and in my opinion it is not therefore advisable to enter into the arrangement mentioned in paragraph 1 of the letter from the War Office.
I assume that the War Office inquiry refers only to the troops at Tien-tsin, and that their withdrawal would not, from a military point of view, involve any risk in the retention, if necessary, of the Legation guards at Peking.
I have, &c. (Signed)
J. N. JORDAN.
[2029 -4]
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